Exponential Growth in a Finite World

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. ~Dr. Albert Bartlett

In the previous post, we reviewed the United State’s monetary system and how that system has placed our money supply, debt, inflation, and overall economic growth on exponential curves. We reviewed who is behind this system and why it was created. We also demonstrated that this monetary system has been adopted the world over by every major world power. There are now only a few nations throughout the world who do not have a central bank and debt-based monetary system that is growing exponentially (Not coincidentally - Iraq and Afghanistan were two of them). In case you haven’t read the previous post, I have included graphs below that show the growth of our money supply and Federal debt. It’s not hard to see that both are growing exponentially – and it’s easy to see that we are now on the steep inclines of an exponential curve in both cases. The previous discussion explained why these trends cannot continue indefinitely without a collapse of our economic system.

As I began studying and praying about these things over the past 3 years, I began to wonder – is the world’s monetary system the only thing following exponential growth? The answer, not surprisingly, is – no. What you are about to see is that many systems present in the world today are growing exponentially – not just our monetary and economic systems. You will also see – similar to our monetary system – that all of these systems are now climbing the steep incline of an exponential curve.

In this post, we’re going to take a look at some of the systems in the world today that are growing exponentially and what it means for our future. You will also see – similar to our monetary system – that the exponential growth of these systems is going to cause us serious problems in the very near future. You may ask – what does this have to do with Bible prophecies? How can studying exponential functions help us understand the Lord’s prophecies? After all, this is just math! You’re probably thinking that you didn’t like math in high school/college – and you don’t like it now. In this case, math gives us some very important clues to our future. You probably thought that your high school math teacher was crazy when he or she told you that math has practical ‘real world’ applications. I’m here to tell you that your teacher was more correct than even they knew. The truth is that we can see significant mathematical trends in the world today and how they relate to Bible prophecy if we will take the time to pay attention. I believe that the Lord has made it very clear what is happening in the world and why – if we’d only pay attention to Him and what is happening in our world. If you’ve read my posts on the judgments of Revelation, then you know that the Lord has given us warnings about our future in His Word – warnings regarding our oceans, atmosphere, earth’s temperature, plant life, famine, drinking water, etc. You’re about to see how exponential growth in the world today is pointing to serious problems regarding all of these things.

As you read through this post, you will probably ask yourself - why couldn’t I see this before? These things seem obvious – why couldn’t I see them? Remember, as always, that the world’s spiritual ruler tries to suppress the truth at all costs. How is your knowledge of Bible prophecy? How’s your Biblical knowledge? The truth is that most of us lack the Biblical knowledge required (I was certainly included) to know how events in the world today relate to God’s Word. This is not by accident. Our enemy has very deceptively led us away from the truth – just focus on your life in the here and now – and has blinded us to what is really happening in the world. Satan will always focus us on short term gains – not the long term consequences of our actions. When it comes to sin, we can certainly see this in our own lives – the consequences of making wrong choices and disobeying God. What we haven’t paid attention to – is how wrong choices will affect us on a worldwide scale.

Let’s start by looking at the most important exponential curve in the world today. The world’s population growth. The world’s population has averaged just over 1% growth throughout our history, so it has taken some time to turn the corner. It’s not hard to see that we are now on the steep incline of an exponential growth curve.

What affect has this had on the world? Resources the world over are strained (food, water, energy, etc) – and pollution is becoming a serious issue the world over. What has human population growth done to animal species throughout the world? They’re becoming extinct – at an exponential rate. It is estimated that 1/3 of the world’s species will become extinct by 2050 (Thomas et al., 2004 (Nature 427:145-148)).

(Source: Dr. Edward Wilson)

How could this trend relate to Bible prophecies? Before we answer this question, let’s take a look at another graph.

In 1950, the world’s fish catch equaled approximately 20 million metric tons. In 2002, the world’s fish catch equaled approximately 90 million metric tons. What affect is this having on overall fish stocks? It is reported that approximately 75% of the major marine fish stocks are either depleted, over exploited or being fished at their biological limit (Source: UN FAO FISHSTAT Database). World fish stocks are plummeting. Take a look at what is happening in the North Atlantic. There has been a 90% decline in predatory fish populations.

What is one of the final judgments on the world?

“The second angel poured out his bowl on the sea, and it turned into blood like that of a dead man, and every living thing in the sea died.” (Revelation 16:3)

Today, we can see that pollution, global warming and over-fishing trends are having adverse effects on sea life (see other links on my website relating to coral death, ocean dead zones, melting arctic ice, wildfires, etc.) – and we see where the Lord tells us in His Word about these things. It should not surprise us that these things are happening on a worldwide scale.

Let’s take a look at other trends following the same exponential growth curve as the world’s population. What is happening to our atmosphere as the world’s population increases exponentially? Greenhouse gases (Carbon Dioxide, Methane, etc) are increasing exponentially.

The following charts show us carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. Once again, we see the exponential curve.

It’s easy to see that the U.S. is the biggest contributor to carbon emissions (charts below). Based on what we’ve learned about our economic system (requiring ever-increasing amounts of resources to sustain the system), this shouldn’t surprise us. With only 5% of the world’s population, we consume 25% of the world’s resources and use approximately 50% of the world’s gasoline. We constantly hear how China’s growing economy is contributing to greenhouse gases, but if you view the data – it’s not hard to understand why China doesn’t really want to hear our concerns. We’re not doing anything about it – why should they?

If we view CO2 concentrations over the past 1,000 years, we see the affects of human population on our atmosphere – and the growth trend is definitely exponential.

What about methane? Methane is another greenhouse gas that could also affect our atmosphere over time – to an even larger degree. As you can see – methane is also increasing at an exponential rate. Methane concentration in our atmosphere has increased approximately 150% since 1750.

What are the possible long term consequences of increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane? There is one, overriding concern. It’s easy to see in the following graph. This graph shows the relationship of greenhouse gas concentrations to earth’s temperature.

It’s easy to observe that global temperatures move in line with carbon dioxide concentrations. When CO2 concentrations increase – global temperatures increase as well. The problem is that we’re entering uncharted territory. Global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to rise to levels we have never seen. Based on past trends, it’s certainly possible that global temperatures will follow this trend upward.

If we look at just the past 150 years – what do we see? We see the beginning of an exponential curve for both carbon dioxide emissions and global surface temperatures.

What affect will global temperature increases have on our oceans?

We can see that ocean temperatures are heading in the same direction. Ocean temperature rise results in coral bleaching, sea level rise and loss of sea ice. As I mentioned in another post, if ocean temperatures rise six degrees Celsius, there is a very real possibility that our oceans will become marine wastelands – unable to support life.

We see these temperature trends – does anything in the Bible warn us about this? Absolutely.

“The fourth angel poured out his bowl on the sun, and the sun was given power to scorch people with fire. They were seared by the intense heat and they cursed the name of God, who had control over these plagues, but they refused to repent and glorify him.” (Revelation 16:8-9)

What other problems could increased temperatures create in our world? Deserts could spread across the globe, fresh water supplies could become even more scarce and food production could be significantly reduced. Are all of these things mentioned in the Bible? Yes – see other posts on the judgments of Revelation for a complete review.

World per capita cereal production, 1961–2000

World cereal yield, 1961–2000

The above graphs shows world cereal production per capita and world cereal yield. How much more land do we have in the world to grow food? How much more yield can we extract out of existing farmland? You’ll notice that the per capita trend above is beginning to decline as our population increases. We see the same trends for other food – corn, livestock, etc.

If we consider that the world’s population is increasing exponentially and we consider the possible impact of a changing climate – it’s easy to see that it will be very difficult for world food production to keep pace with the needs of the world’s population.

We could continue to look at other trends – world oil consumption, world energy needs, etc. – and see the same exponential curves. We could look at literally hundreds of graphs – and see that each one is approaching the near vertical phase of an exponential curve. What does this mean for us? My personal belief is that these exponential growth curves are not mere coincidences. I believe it’s yet another way that our Creator is giving us a message. A message that we are nearing the end of this present evil age.

There is something that we all need to keep in mind as we consider these trends and how they relate to Bible prophecy. Almost all of these exponential growth rates are a direct result of the exponential growth of the world’s population. If you study the illuminati and their plans for world government – you’ll find that population control is one of their priorities. They are very aware of the trends we have discussed here and are planning to solve the problem. This is why the Lord gives us information regarding this world government – its actions are evil.

“Then I saw another beast, coming out of the earth. He had two horns like a lamb, but he spoke like a dragon.” (Revelation 13:11)

Here are a couple of excellent articles/videos relating to exponential growth and current trends:

http://globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/645

http://www.chrismartenson.com/exponential_growth

http://www.chrismartenson.com/compounding_is_the_problem

http://www.chrismartenson.com/growth_vs_prosperity

Rising Temperatures Harm Ocean Plant Life - July 28 2010

Today – articles like the one below are probably interesting to most people – but not really concerning.  Maybe the earth is warming – maybe not.  Maybe a rise in sea temperature will cause long term damage – maybe not. Maybe these things will cause serious problems during my lifetime – but probably not.

The human race has always been stubborn - extremely short sighted – and many times – just plain lazy. People started smoking for years because certain corporations said it was A-OK – there were no ‘official’ studies that ever linked smoking to cancer. Did we really think that inhaling smoke and toxic fumes into our lungs would have no long term effects on our health?  Probably not – but we liked smoking – so we did it anyway – and the long term consequences have been catastrophic to many of us.

Do we really believe that eating fast food and drinking sugar laden soda will not adversely affect our health?  Probably not – but we like how it tastes – so we do it anyway – and the long term consequences have been catastrophic for the health of our nation.

Do we really believe that our economy can grow forever in a finite world?  Not really – but every generation for the past 100 years has believed that they could pass the problem to the next – until now.  Now – our generation gets to witness the long term consequences of placing our faith with the world and its leaders.

Do we really believe that we can take millions upon millions of tons of hydrocarbons out of the earth – and throw them up in the atmosphere without consequences?  Not really – but like many of our decisions – we don’t think about the long term consequences of our actions.  For most of us – it’s all about the here and now.  If it makes my life easier today to ignore the truth of what my decision may do long term – I’m A-OK with it.  We tell ourselves that a decision that may hurt others – either now or in the future – is fine if it somehow benefits me. 

While we are living a sinful life – we don’t like to think that there is a righteous God who will someday judge us for what we have done – so we simply tell ourselves He doesn’t exist – and the problem is solved.  We tell ourselves the lie that we were somehow created out of nothing – by no one.  We ignore the small, quiet voice in our minds telling us that this can’t possibly be true – that it is impossible that something as complex and magnificent as the earth and the life on it could be created from a void by some cosmic accident.  Even though the odds of this happening by chance are so great that it cannot accurately be calculated – we like living apart from God and His laws – so we embrace the world and its sinful ways.

We love to ignore the truth when it is unpleasant or we simply don’t like it or if it costs us something. Ignoring the truth is leading us to our destruction and the destruction of the earth.  This isn’t hypothetical or some exercise in philosophy – the Bible tells us that at the end of our reign during this evil age – the earth will be laid waste.  The signs are growing more ominous – and few are paying attention.

Will our nation embrace the truth in time?

“There is a way that seems right to a man, but its end is the way of death.” (Proverbs 14:12)

http://endtimediscussions.wordpress.com/2006/09/12/the-judgments-of-revelation-summary/

jg – July 28, 2010

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JULY 28, 2010, 2:02 P.M. ET

Rising Temperatures Harm Ocean Plant Life, Research Finds

By GAUTAM NAIK

Wall St. Journal

Rising temperatures can have a harmful effect on the tiny plant life that forms the base of the marine food chain and also likely affects marine diversity, new research has found.

Over the years, humans have stressed the oceans through pollution, over-fishing and habitat alteration such as dredging. Less well understood is the role of higher sea temperatures, which many scientists believe is linked to global climate change. Estimates suggest that the oceans have warmed a total of roughly half a degree Celsius on average over the past century.

Two studies, both published in the journal Nature, offer insight into some effects of a warming ocean. One finds a strong link between higher sea-surface temperatures and a major decline in phytoplankton, or ocean algae, over the past century. The second study concludes that warmer seas can influence marine diversity. In the long run, this may rearrange the global distribution of ocean life.

Oceanographers have long debated whether the oceans are getting more, or less, green with algae. Key to the debate is phytoplankton, microscopic plant life that forms the base of the marine food chain, from crustaceans to fish, and ultimately humans. The algae have increased in many coastal areas because increased runoff from rivers brings nutrients that the algae flourish on. Here blooms can be bad, because they release toxins or otherwise damage marine life. But no one has measured the long-term abundance in the global oceans.

Consistent satellite-based measurements exist only from 1997 onward. For a longer view, scientists at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia, Canada, used data obtained with a simple oceanography device known as a secchi.

Since the late 1800s, scientists globally have routinely used this disk, which is lowered into the water until it can no longer be seen. The measured depth of the device provides an estimate of water clarity. For most of the ocean, it is a proxy measure of phytoplankton abundance.

By collating and analyzing about half a million secchi observations, plus other direct measurements of algae, the Dalhousie team estimated that phytoplankton levels declined about 1% of the global average each year from 1899 onward. The data are more carefully maintained and more reliable for recent decades, translating into a 40% decline in algae since 1950.

A decline is worrisome because phytoplankton generate roughly half of all organic matter—the building-block of life—on the planet. The team investigated several factors that could have caused the decline, including wind intensity, cyclical climate changes, and sea-surface temperature. "We found that temperature had the best power to explain the changes," said Boris Worm, a marine biologist at Dalhousie and co-author of the study.

Marine algae live in the upper layers of the ocean but rely on nutrients that circulate up from lower layers. Rising temperatures means less mixing in the water, so fewer nutrients reach the algae. However, Dr. Worm notes that algal abundance can be affected by other factors, such as shifts in predator-prey populations.

Mike Behrenfeld, an expert on phytoplankton who has read the Nature paper, said it was similar to a 1992 study which also used secchi data to show a long-term decline in marine algae in the north Pacific. "But this paper covers the globe," said Dr. Behrenfeld of Oregon State University. "And the scientists also took the next step of relating the [algal decline] to sea temperatures."

Another team of scientists, including Dr. Worm, mapped the diversity of marine life on a broad scale. One surprise finding was that while coastal marine species showed greater diversity at the equator, the diversity of oceanic species peaked in the mid-latitudes. That's unlike terrestrial diversity, which largely peaks at the tropics.

The researchers also analyzed possible links between the global distribution of 11,000 marine species—big and small—to such environmental factors as temperature, oxygen levels and habitat availability. The study builds on the decade-long effort by the Census of Marine Life to compile occurrence records for marine species. For all species types, only one factor showed a consistent correlation to diversity: sea temperature.

It's not clear what this means globally, though. When the water warms, some species may move elsewhere, reducing the diversity of their original habitat. Creatures that can't move may come under environmental stress or die off, also altering the ecosystem.

"While a changing climate is likely to lead to a change in patterns of diversity, we don't have the data yet to know what this response might look like," said Derek P. Tittensor, marine ecologist at Dalhousie and co-author of the second Nature paper, which analyzed marine diversity.

Meanwhile, other scientists are trying to assess how sea creatures respond to declining oxygen levels, caused by pollution or natural factors. Most of the 400 oxygen-depleted "dead zones" identified by scientists so far are near areas of human impact. Together, they cover an area of 96,500 square miles (250,000 square kilometers).

When oxygen levels drop, animals in the area fight for what's left. Many don't survive. A team of scientists from the University of Vienna lowered a plexiglass box to the Adriatic sea floor and used a time-lapse camera to document how various creatures inside responded as oxygen levels dropped.

A future catalog of such behaviors could help scientists identify areas in the ocean where oxygen depletion is underway. Some of the results will be published in Marine Ecology Progress Series, a scientific journal.

Scientists Affirm Warming Trend - July 29 2010

We’re nearing the time when God’s signs will be undeniable.

This is our future.

“The second angel poured out his bowl on the sea, and it turned into blood like that of a dead man, and every living thing in the sea died.” (Revelation 16:3)

“The third angel poured out his bowl on the rivers and springs of water, and they became blood.” (Revelation 16:4)

“The fourth angel poured out his bowl on the sun, and the sun was given power to scorch people with fire. They were seared by the intense heat and they cursed the name of God, who had control over these plagues, but they refused to repent and glorify him.” (Revelation 16:8-9)

jg – July 29, 2010

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JULY 28, 2010, 4:33 P.M. ET

Scientists Affirm Warming Trend

WASHINGTON—Scientists from around the world provided more evidence of global warming, in the annual State of the Climate report.

Compiled by more than 300 scientists from 48 countries, the report said its analysis of 10 indicators that are "clearly and directly related to surface temperatures, all tell the same story: Global warming is undeniable.''

Concern about rising temperatures has been growing in recent years as atmospheric scientists report rising temperatures associated with greenhouse gases released into the air by industrial and other human processes. At the same time, some skeptics have questioned the conclusions.

The new report, the 20th in a series, focuses only on global warming and does not specify a cause.

"The evidence in this report would say unequivocally yes, there is no doubt,'' that the Earth is warming, said Tom Karl, the transitional director of the planned NOAA Climate Service.

Deke Arndt, chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch at the National Climatic Data Center, noted that the 1980s was the warmest decade up to that point, but each year in the 1990s was warmer than the '80s average. But each year in the 2000s has been warmer than the '90s average, so the 2000s are now the warmest decade on record, he said.

The new report noted that continuing warming will threaten coastal cities, infrastructure, water supply, health and agriculture.

"At first glance, the amount of increase each decade—about a fifth of a degree Fahrenheit—may seem small,'' the report said. "But,'' it adds, "the temperature increase of about 1 degree Fahrenheit experienced during the past 50 years has already altered the planet. Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are becoming more common and more intense.''

Last month was the warmest June on record and this year has had the warmest average temperature for January-June since record keeping began, NOAA reported last week.

The new climate report, released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and published as a supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, focused on 10 indicators of a warming world, seven which are increasing and three declining.

Rising over decades are average air temperature, the ratio of water vapor to air, ocean heat content, sea surface temperature, sea level, air temperature over the ocean and air temperature over land.

Indicators that are declining are snow cover, glaciers and sea ice. The 10 were selected "because they were the most obviously related indicators of global temperature,'' said Peter Thorne of the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, who helped develop the list when at the British weather service, known as the Met Office.

Ice Island 4X the Size of Manhattan Breaks Off of Greenland

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5G7L6T_rYcY


Greenland glacier calves island 4 times the size of Manhattan, UD scientist reports

University of Delaware

http://www.udel.edu/udaily/2011/aug/greenland080610.html?loc=interstitialskip

1:40 p.m., Aug. 6, 2010----A University of Delaware researcher reports that an “ice island” four times the size of Manhattan has calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier. The last time the Arctic lost such a large chunk of ice was in 1962.

“In the early morning hours of August 5, 2010, an ice island four times the size of Manhattan was born in northern Greenland,” said Andreas Muenchow, associate professor of physical ocean science and engineering at the University of Delaware'sCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Environment. Muenchow's research in Nares Strait, between Greenland and Canada, is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF).


Satellite imagery of this remote area at 81 degrees N latitude and 61 degrees W longitude, about 620 miles [1,000 km] south of the North Pole, reveals that Petermann Glacier lost about one-quarter of its 43-mile long [70 km] floating ice-shelf.


Trudy Wohlleben of the Canadian Ice Service discovered the ice island within hours after NASA's MODIS-Aqua satellite took the data on Aug. 5, at 8:40 UTC (4:40 EDT), Muenchow said. These raw data were downloaded, processed, and analyzed at the University of Delaware in near real-time as part of Muenchow's NSF research.


Petermann Glacier, the parent of the new ice island, is one of the two largest remaining glaciers in Greenland that terminate in floating shelves. The glacier connects the great Greenland ice sheet directly with the ocean.


The new ice island has an area of at least 100 square miles and a thickness up to half the height of the Empire State Building.


“The freshwater stored in this ice island could keep the Delaware or Hudson rivers flowing for more than two years. It could also keep all U.S. public tap water flowing for 120 days,” Muenchow said.


The island will enter Nares Strait, a deep waterway between northern Greenland and Canada where, since 2003, a University of Delaware ocean and ice observing array has been maintained by Muenchow with collaborators in Oregon (Prof. Kelly Falkner), British Columbia (Prof. Humfrey Melling), and England (Prof. Helen Johnson).


“In Nares Strait, the ice island will encounter real islands that are all much smaller in size,” Muenchow said. “The newly born ice-island may become land-fast, block the channel, or it may break into smaller pieces as it is propelled south by the prevailing ocean currents. From there, it will likely follow along the coasts of Baffin Island and Labrador, to reach the Atlantic within the next two years.”


The last time such a massive ice island formed was in 1962 when Ward Hunt Ice Shelf calved a 230 square-mile island, smaller pieces of which became lodged between real islands inside Nares Strait. Petermann Glacier spawned smaller ice islands in 2001 (34 square miles) and 2008 (10 square miles). In 2005, the Ayles Ice Shelf disintegrated and became an ice island (34 square miles) about 60 miles to the west of Petermann Fjord.

From Russia With Fire Extinguishers - August 6 2010

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMQGa0lThck&feature=channel 


From Russia With Fire Extinguishers: Interactive Visualization Of A Country On Fire

www.zerohedge.com

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/russia-fire-extinguishers-interactive-visualization-country-fire

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2010 07:00 -0500

For all those curious to see just what an entire country on fire looks like, the University of Maryland Fire Information for Resource Management Servicesprovides an interactive map of all currently raging fires in Russia. With Moscow temperatures projected to hit 40 Celsius today (and stay there for at least the next few days), and visibility in the Russian capital down to double digits, now that the surrounding smoke has been blown in via increasing winds, grain exports and surging food prices may soon be the least of the country's worries... at least for those unlucky enough to have been a part of the CIS privatization mafia better known nowadays as Russia's resource tycoon billionaires. All those with Google Earth can download the interactive KML map at the following link. (Google Earth can be downloaded here)

Selected static pics below.

The judgments of Revelation - Part 1

As you’ve read through this blog, at some point you’ve probably wondered about the judgments contained in the Book of Revelation. Even if you’ve never read the Bible, chances are that you’ve heard about these judgments. They are often quoted by prophecy teachers and whether you realize it or not, they are often used in Hollywood movies (The Seventh Sign, The Reaping, etc). In the Left Behind series of books, they figure prominently in the storyline. As I’ve mentioned before, most of the time, you will be told that the judgments described in Revelation should be taken literally and that they will all take place during a seven year period of time in the future. We’ve already shown that a future 7 year period of tribulation is a myth – not supported by Scripture. Should we take the judgments literally? Will rivers and oceans turn to blood? Will a third of the earth’s vegetation burn up in an instant? The answer is that I believe we can take some of them literally (the results of the judgments), while others are certainly symbolic. The truth is that many of the judgments are present in our world today. You probably haven’t noticed because either you’ve never read Revelation or you haven’t paid much attention because you expected a secret rapture to take you away before the world experienced them. I’m about to show you that some of them are certainly here today, while others are yet to come. This discussion of the judgments of Revelation will be ongoing since I believe that many of them will be poured out on the earth at a future time (but not within a 7 year period). I also believe that we will gain additional wisdom that will allow us to correctly interpret these prophecies as we come closer to the end of this age.

Let’s start with the four horsemen of the apocalypse. Again, even if you’ve never read the Bible, chances are you’ve heard of them. They are most often described as precursors of death and destruction at some future point in history. The horsemen are described in Revelation chapter 6:

"I watched as the Lamb opened the first of the seven seals. Then I heard one of the four living creatures say in a voice like thunder, "Come!" I looked, and there before me was a white horse! Its rider held a bow, and he was given a crown, and he rode out as a conqueror bent on conquest.” (Revelation 6:1-2)

Many prophecy teachers today tell us that the rider on the white horse is an evil future world leader – the antichrist. As we’ve already shown, the Bible does not point to one future antichrist in the form of a man, so this interpretation cannot be correct. This rider has a crown and a bow, signifying that this rider represents kings or kingdoms with military power. This rider is a conqueror focused on power and conquest. Are these verses pointing to one person – one king or one antichrist? I believe the answer is no. I believe that these verses are describing the human quest for power and glory throughout our history. Have we been bent on conquering each other? Absolutely. Throughout human history, kingdoms have risen and kingdoms have fallen, but we continue to pursue power through conquering other nations. Babylon, Persia, Greece, Rome, England, France, Nazi Germany, Japan, the Soviet Union, the Illuminati – the list goes on and on. This rider is certainly present in the world today….and has been in the world for centuries.

“When the Lamb opened the second seal, I heard the second living creature say, "Come!" Then another horse came out, a fiery red one. Its rider was given power to take peace from the earth and to make men slay each other. To him was given a large sword.” (Revelation 6:3-4)

While the rider on the white horse has political and military power and is ‘bent on conquest’, the rider of the red horse makes actual conquest possible. He takes peace from the earth and makes men kill each other. So, the first rider gives men an eye for conquering, the 2nd rider gives men the ability to actually do it – to kill their fellow man in order to conquer and gain ever more power. The first two riders go hand in hand. The more power you have, the more you want. How do you get more? Conquer (by killing) other nations. Every major power in the world throughout our history has conquered other nations or kingdoms by force. Is killing involved? Every time. We want more power (bent on conquest) and attain it by conquering other nations (take peace from the earth and ….make men slay each other). This rider is also present in the world today and has been for centuries.

“When the Lamb opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, "Come!" I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand. Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, "A quart of wheat for a day's wages, and three quarts of barley for a day's wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!" (Revelation 6:5-6)

Many prophecy scholars say that the rider on the black horse represents famine. The pair of scales represents both high food prices and scarcity of food. ‘do not damage the oil and the wine’ is telling us that even though famine will continue to spread throughout the world, luxuries will be readily available to the wealthy. I believe this is correctly interpreted. Even though many in the world today (and throughout history) suffer from famine and lack of food, there has always been plenty available to the world’s wealthy. If you look at the world today, billions of people around the globe suffer from lack of food and famine while many still live in luxury.

“When the Lamb opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature say, "Come!" I looked, and there before me was a pale horse! Its rider was named Death, and Hades was following close behind him. They were given power over a fourth of the earth to kill by sword, famine and plague, and by the wild beasts of the earth.” (Revelation 6:7-8)

Other than the color of the horse, this rider is similar to the previous riders in that he kills by sword and famine. What is unique about this rider is that we’re told he is given power over ‘a fourth of the earth’ and has power to kill by the ‘wild beasts of the earth’. Are humans today killed by sword, famine, plague (diseases) and by the animals of the earth? Absolutely. Saying that this rider is coming only at some point in the future is pure speculation. Think about it…..if we add up all of the people on the earth today affected by wars, famine and diseases, will the total add up to a quarter of the world’s population? This rider is with us today. I believe the words ‘…and Hades was following close behind him’ is a reference to how many in the world do not know the Lord and therefore, will sit in judgment for eternity. This parallels Jesus’ comments regarding the ‘narrow path’ that we have discussed in earlier postings. Jesus tells us that many walk on the broad path that leads to eternal destruction (Mathew 7:13).

I think sometimes we tend to overanalyze what the Lord’s Word tells us. Many like to envision that the four horsemen of the apocalypse are somehow involved with a future 7 year tribulation period – that these horsemen start God’s judgment during this period of time. As we’ve seen, the Bible never mentions a 7 year period of tribulation or that the judgments in Revelation will be poured out during this specific timeframe. It’s as if we’ve created our own story of how end time events play out, instead of studying and praying and seeking the truth from our Creator – who knows how things are going to happen - no speculation needed. I’ve seen many interpretations of these horsemen, but I believe that the simplest answer in this case is the correct one – the Lord is telling us that we will have to endure all of these things while we live in this fallen world.

Let’s take a look at other judgments in Revelation. Keep in mind that it’s easy for us to say that because there is a 1st seal and a 2nd seal, that the 1st seal judgment must come before the 2nd seal or the seal judgments must come before the trumpet judgments because that’s how they read chronologically in the Bible. I’m not going to let the order they’re listed in the Bible influence whether I believe they are present in the world. Let’s take an objective look at the world and compare it to each judgment to determine whether we believe it is present in the world.

“The first angel sounded his trumpet, and there came hail and fire mixed with blood, and it was hurled down upon the earth. A third of the earth was burned up, a third of the trees were burned up, and all the green grass was burned up.” (Revelation 8:7)

This judgment begins with mention of weather (hail) and fire. What is the effect on the earth? A third of the earth’s vegetation is burned up. Most prophecy scholars I have read attribute this to some future war or supernatural event that instantaneously burns up a third of the earth. I don’t believe this is a correct interpretation. Think about the world today. Thousands of fires exist throughout the forests, pastures and rainforests of the earth. Most are a result of us (clear-cutting), but many have also started due to lightning, war, etc. (wildfires). Also remember that as our cities have grown, we have replaced the earth’s vegetation with concrete and buildings. In effect, we are replacing the earth’s carbon dioxide filters with man-made structures that attribute to warming the earth. Keep these things in mind as we look at other judgments. Personally, I believe that some judgments set the stage for others….and this is certainly one that will contribute to others. What is happening to the earth as we continue to lose vegetation? Coupled with the burning of fossil fuels, the earth is rapidly getting warmer. Think about the chain-reaction this is causing – heat waves, climate change (possibly causing future famines), possible new disease outbreaks (as parasites are able to survive longer and further north), extinction of animal species (frogs, birds - millions of honey bees around the world are disappearing – threatening food pollination, etc). Do other judgments in Revelation speak to these things? Yes. Keep in mind that many want to believe that all of these things will happen suddenly by apparent supernatural means. As we’re told throughout the Bible, true wisdom comes from God, so those close to Him will be able to correctly interpret what is happening. Those without faith will find all kinds of worldly reasons why these things are happening. Don’t rely on your own understanding, but trust our Creator for He has told us these things ahead of time.

“The third angel sounded his trumpet, and a great star, blazing like a torch, fell from the sky on a third of the rivers and on the springs of water— the name of the star is Wormwood. A third of the waters turned bitter, and many people died from the waters that had become bitter.” (Revelation 8:10-11)

As we interpret these judgments, I believe it is important to focus on the results of the judgments, not how they happen. We should look at the world and see if the results of the judgment are present and not focus on the description of how they are brought into the world. The important thing to remember is that these things are coming from God and are described from a heavenly perspective. So, we may not completely understand how God has brought them into the world (being described from heaven), but we can certainly see if the results are present in the world. The third trumpet judgment is a good example. In our physical world, could one star (comet, meteor, etc) fall to the earth and cause a third of the fresh water throughout the world to become poison? I believe the answer is no. If we were to view this literally, could a comet hit the United States and poison the water in Chile? I believe that this is simply a symbolic, heavenly description of how God is bringing this judgment to the world. We should also consider that this description of a star (or millstone) falling to earth causing judgment is used multiple times in Revelation. Are we going to be repeatedly hit by comets? If this were true, water purity would be the least of our worries.

Let’s take a look at the results of this trumpet judgment. A third of the fresh water in the world turns bitter (poisonous) and many people die because they continue to drink the water even though it is polluted. Is this going on in the world today? Certainly. I recently watched a story on ‘60 Minutes’ that talked about how many animal species throughout the world are dying or developing strange cancers because there are so many man-made chemicals present now in fresh water. Pollution from chemical plants and manufacturing, farm chemical runoff, raw sewage, etc. has been polluting our fresh water at unprecedented rates in recent years. Inadequate fresh water supplies the world over are causing disease and death as people continue to drink polluted water because they have no alternative. There’s a reason we all buy so much bottled water – we don’t trust what is coming out of our taps. We are beginning to hear that future wars will be fought over fresh water as the world’s population increases and the availability of clean water declines. This judgment is certainly present in the world today.

“The fourth angel sounded his trumpet, and a third of the sun was struck, a third of the moon, and a third of the stars, so that a third of them turned dark. A third of the day was without light, and also a third of the night.” (Revelation 8:12)

We’ve already discussed this judgment in a previous posting. I believe that this judgment is describing a future period of time when our atmosphere will become polluted after a global war – causing our view of the sun, moon and stars to be obstructed. This is also mentioned in other verses throughout the Bible and Jesus Himself even mentions this period of time, “Immediately after the distress of those days the sun will be darkened, and the moon will not give its light; the stars will fall from the sky, and the heavenly bodies will be shaken.” (Mathew 24:29).

We’ll continue with this discussion in future postings as more is revealed to us.

The judgments of Revelation - Part 2

As we read through the Lord’s judgments told to us in Revelation, we see many of the judgments result from a large object being cast into the sea or falling to earth. The result is a devastating judgment in the world. Should we take this literally? I believe the answer is no. As I’ve stated before, I believe that we should focus on the results of these judgments, not how they are brought into the world. I believe we are given a clue to interpreting these specific prophecies in Revelation chapter 18, verse 21:

“Then a mighty angel picked up a boulder the size of a large millstone and threw it into the sea, and said:
"With such violence
the great city of Babylon will be thrown down,
never to be found again.”

So, when we’re told that something is thrown into the sea, this simply means that something destructive is happening on earth as a result of this judgment. In verse 21 above, a city is destroyed. The city is not destroyed because a large asteroid or other object literally strikes the oceans (if this actually happened – more than one city would be destroyed); this is simply symbolic of something destroying a city. As we’ve discussed in other posts, we are given other clues in Revelation that tell us which city this judgment refers to. We’re also told in other verses the type of judgment verse 21 above refers to – fire.

If we examine the results of the judgments in Revelation and apply them to the world today – we begin to see the truth. If we stop thinking that all of these judgments are described literally and will somehow appear by supernatural means (example: water turning to blood) during a future period of time – we begin to understand the truth. If we interpret the symbolic meaning of the judgments of Revelation through prayer and apply them to what we know is happening in the world – we begin to know the truth. If we apply what we know about the judgments of Revelation to what we know about the ‘beasts’ of Revelation 13, then we begin to truly ‘see’ God’s end time plan being laid out before us. Do you think it’s a coincidence that the Catholic Church is once again a powerful religious and political force in the world at the same time that the New World Order is on the verge of implementing a world government? Do you also think it a coincidence that these two entities are gaining control of the world at the same time that ‘global warming’ seems to be making headlines with its doomsday scenarios? Is it a coincidence that these things are happening at the same time that technology exists that could enable a cashless society – giving complete monetary control to the New World Order? Is it becoming clear for you now? If you have been seeking the Lord and praying about these things as you’ve read through what is written here – then you’ve heard the Lord’s quiet voice confirming the truth. If you’ve drawn near to God as I have, then you are beginning to understand just how blind you once were.

‘I was blind but now I see!’ (John 9:25)

You may ask – ‘Why does God communicate to us in this manner? Why not simply tell us plainly what these judgments mean?’ God gives knowledge and wisdom to those who love Him and ask Him for these things – according to His will. To those who are full of pride, those who are evil and do not follow Him, these things remain hidden. To those who think they are proud and wise, God tells us they are fools. He reveals true knowledge to those who humbly follow Him. As you read the Bible, you will notice that the Lord’s teachers and prophets are continually persecuted and ridiculed throughout the history of our world. They speak of things revealed to them through God’s spirit – real Truth. Worldly people have always rejected these messages because they cannot spiritually discern anything – and have no desire to do so. Everything they know is seen and heard by their eyes and ears – and the most important things remain hidden from them.

“At that time Jesus said, "I praise you, Father, Lord of heaven and earth, because you have hidden these things from the wise and learned, and revealed them to little children.” (Mathew 11:25)

“The disciples came to him and asked, "Why do you speak to the people in parables?"
He replied, "The knowledge of the secrets of the kingdom of heaven has been given to you, but not to them. Whoever has will be given more, and he will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what he has will be taken from him. This is why I speak to them in parables:
"Though seeing, they do not see;
though hearing, they do not hear or understand.
In them is fulfilled the prophecy of Isaiah:
" 'You will be ever hearing but never understanding;
you will be ever seeing but never perceiving.
For this people's heart has become calloused;
they hardly hear with their ears,
and they have closed their eyes.
Otherwise they might see with their eyes,
hear with their ears,
understand with their hearts
and turn, and I would heal them.’ But blessed are your eyes because they see, and your ears because they hear. For I tell you the truth, many prophets and righteous men longed to see what you see but did not see it, and to hear what you hear but did not hear it. (Matthew 13:10-17)


“He changes times and seasons;
he sets up kings and deposes them.
He gives wisdom to the wise
and knowledge to the discerning.
He reveals deep and hidden things;
he knows what lies in darkness,
and light dwells with him.
I thank and praise you, O God of my fathers:
You have given me wisdom and power,
you have made known to me what we asked of you,
you have made known to us the dream of the king." (Daniel 2:21-23)

“I foretold the former things long ago,
my mouth announced them and I made them known;
then suddenly I acted, and they came to pass.
For I knew how stubborn you were;
the sinews of your neck were iron,
your forehead was bronze.
Therefore I told you these things long ago;
before they happened I announced them to you
so that you could not say,
'My idols did them;
my wooden image and metal god ordained them.'
You have heard these things; look at them all.
Will you not admit them?
"From now on I will tell you of new things,
of hidden things unknown to you.
They are created now, and not long ago;
you have not heard of them before today.
So you cannot say,
'Yes, I knew of them.'
You have neither heard nor understood;
from of old your ear has not been open.
Well do I know how treacherous you are;
you were called a rebel from birth.
For my own name's sake I delay my wrath;
for the sake of my praise I hold it back from you,
so as not to cut you off.
See, I have refined you, though not as silver;
I have tested you in the furnace of affliction.
For my own sake, for my own sake, I do this.
How can I let myself be defamed?
I will not yield my glory to another.” (Isaiah 48:3-11)

“My own hand laid the foundations of the earth,
and my right hand spread out the heavens;
when I summon them,
they all stand up together.
"Come together, all of you, and listen:
Which of the idols has foretold these things?
The LORD's chosen ally
will carry out his purpose against Babylon;
his arm will be against the Babylonians.
I, even I, have spoken;
yes, I have called him.
I will bring him,
and he will succeed in his mission.
"Come near me and listen to this:
"From the first announcement I have not spoken in secret;
at the time it happens, I am there."
And now the Sovereign LORD has sent me,
with his Spirit.
This is what the LORD says—
your Redeemer, the Holy One of Israel:
"I am the LORD your God,
who teaches you what is best for you,
who directs you in the way you should go.” (Isaiah 48:13-17)

“He tunnels through the rock;
his eyes see all its treasures.
He searches the sources of the rivers
and brings hidden things to light.
"But where can wisdom be found?
Where does understanding dwell?
Man does not comprehend its worth;
it cannot be found in the land of the living.
The deep says, 'It is not in me';
the sea says, 'It is not with me.'
It cannot be bought with the finest gold,
nor can its price be weighed in silver.
It cannot be bought with the gold of Ophir,
with precious onyx or sapphires.
Neither gold nor crystal can compare with it,
nor can it be had for jewels of gold.
Coral and jasper are not worthy of mention;
the price of wisdom is beyond rubies.
The topaz of Cush cannot compare with it;
it cannot be bought with pure gold.
"Where then does wisdom come from?
Where does understanding dwell?
It is hidden from the eyes of every living thing,
concealed even from the birds of the air.
Destruction and Death say,
'Only a rumor of it has reached our ears.'
God understands the way to it
and he alone knows where it dwells,
for he views the ends of the earth
and sees everything under the heavens.
When he established the force of the wind
and measured out the waters,
when he made a decree for the rain
and a path for the thunderstorm,
then he looked at wisdom and appraised it;
he confirmed it and tested it.
And he said to man,
'The fear of the Lord—that is wisdom,
and to shun evil is understanding.' " (Job 28:10-28)

Many prophecies are being revealed now because we are nearing the end of this age. It is time for us to know these things that have been hidden for centuries. Even though we have been told these things, many will again reject the Truth, just as people have done throughout history.

Let’s continue our study of the judgments of Revelation.

“The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze, was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood, a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed.” (Revelation 8:8-9)

Is it possible for a third of the oceans to turn into blood? Again, should we take this literally? Unless God did this supernaturally and somehow created a dividing line between the blood and water, it would be impossible. As I’ve mentioned before, I don’t believe that God will intervene in a way that allows everyone to see this as a supernatural event. True believers will be able to discern this – ungodly people will not. We are told that even though these judgments are unleashed on the world, most will not repent. So, we won’t see something as literal as water turning into blood so that all will know without a doubt – without any faith. Those that humble themselves and draw close to the Lord will know exactly what’s happening. Those who rely on their own knowledge and understanding will not know – and will find all kinds of reasons in the natural world why these things are happening. I believe that the reference to blood is simply telling us that something catastrophic is happening to the oceans of the world. This is not an isolated event.

Let’s take a look at other symbolism present in this judgment. The ‘mountain’ that is thrown into the sea is ‘ablaze’. This would lead me to believe that fire (war) could be a reason that ‘a third of the ships were destroyed’. Is this a reference to world wars? It’s possible. I believe the most important piece of this judgment, and the one we need to pay the most attention to, is the reference to the creatures in the sea. A third of them die. Something happening in the world is causing the animals of the oceans to die. Again, we’re not looking for a supernatural event that will cause the oceans to turn to blood – thereby causing the animals to die. We’re looking for something happening in the world today that will have a worldly explanation to worldly people – yet the real (spiritual) answer will be clear to those who can spiritually discern the truth. The answer to this prophetic puzzle is, once again, right in front of you. Is there anything happening in the world today that is putting stress on the oceans of the world? Absolutely. We could say that pollution certainly has played a role in the decline of our oceans and has even caused dead zones in certain areas of the oceans where fish and wildlife cannot live. Although pollution is causing harm, I believe there is something much more ominous happening to our planet that is beginning to adversely affect the world and our oceans – global warming. As our planet warms (see links on my website), fresh water is pouring into the oceans due to melting ice in Antarctica, the North Pole and Greenland. In addition, as the concentration of carbon dioxide has increased in our atmosphere, oceans have absorbed massive amounts of carbon. Where does this lead? From a scientific perspective, no one knows for sure – but climate models (using super-computers) tell us it’s not good. From a biblical perspective – we’re looking at one of the Lord’s judgments. Has over-fishing, pollution and climate change affected a third of the fish in our oceans? I believe the answer is clear - yes. I have included a link on my website to a study by ecologists that estimates salt-water fish could be completely extinct by the year 2048. But that’s not all – scientists believe that if the average temperature of the Earth rises by six degrees (over the past century the average temperature of the earth has risen one degree – and the rate is accelerating), the oceans of the earth would become marine wastelands – devoid of life. From space the oceans would still look normal – they would still be blue/green – but they could not support life. We see the beginning of this today (coral death, red tides, dead zones). Would it surprise you to learn that one of the bowl judgments (Revelation 16:3) speaks of this very thing happening? What we’re seeing now is only the beginning. In a future post we’ll discuss where we are on God’s prophetic timeline (looking at the judgments present in the world) and what we can expect in the near future.

Let’s continue with the trumpet judgments.

“The third angel sounded his trumpet, and a great star, blazing like a torch, fell from the sky on a third of the rivers and on the springs of water— the name of the star is Wormwood. A third of the waters turned bitter, and many people died from the waters that had become bitter.” (Revelation 8:10-11)

We have discussed this judgment in a previous post. I believe this is a reference to how the world’s fresh water supplies are becoming polluted in various ways – war, industrial pollution, pesticides, etc. Without a doubt, this is happening today (see links on my website).

Even though these judgments seem terrible, they do not compare to the final seven judgments. These are commonly referred to as the ‘bowl’ or ‘vial’ judgments – God’s final judgments on this world before Jesus returns. The seal and trumpet judgments really don’t give us a specific time reference, so while I believe many of them are present in the world today, it’s not easy to pinpoint exactly when they were introduced – and it’s not really important for us to know this. The important thing to remember is that they are happening now – they are not fantasies that will happen only in the future.

We are, however, given a reference for the beginning of the bowl judgments. For the spiritually mature, we are definitely given a reference for the beginning of the end of this age. Why? So that those who are being persecuted for staying true to Jesus Christ will know that this age is progressing exactly according to God’s will. These things are no longer a mystery because we need to know that God is in control and our redemption is near. It will be a very difficult time, but not unexpected.

Notice carefully what we’re told at the beginning of Revelation 16.

“Then I heard a loud voice from the temple saying to the seven angels, "Go, pour out the seven bowls of God's wrath on the earth." The first angel went and poured out his bowl on the land, and ugly and painful sores broke out on the people who had the mark of the beast and worshiped his image.” (Revelation 16:1-2)

Who is affected by this judgment? People who have received the mark of the beast and worship his image. So, the bowl judgments begin after the mark is introduced in the world and the image of the beast is revealed. What have we said the image is? As we have discussed previously, this is the evil image (likeness) of the Roman Catholic Church after its judgment by fire. We are clearly given a time reference in these verses that we can use to determine when we can expect to see the bowl judgments being poured out onto the earth. Why is this made clear? Why does the Lord give us a clear starting point for the bowl judgments? Because the earth will become a very unpleasant place to live.

The Lord is telling His children to prepare themselves for what is coming. The mark and image of the beast mark the starting point for the most difficult time in human history. This will be a time of unprecedented war, famine, disease, persecution and death. Nothing in human history will compare with this period of time before Jesus’ return. Because of this, God gives His saints a means to pinpoint its beginning.

I believe it is this period of time that Jesus was referring to when he said:

“because those will be days of distress unequaled from the beginning, when God created the world, until now—and never to be equaled again.” (Mark 13:19)

God is telling us that it is of the utmost importance that we are prepared spiritually for the future. We must be able to stand against evil. Regardless of our circumstances, we must remain focused on Him.

We’ll review the bowl judgments in a future post.

The Judgments of Revelation Part 3 - 'Nemesis', Earthquakes & Hailstones

“So the Universe is not quite as you thought it was.  You’d better rearrange your beliefs, then.  Because you certainly can’t rearrange the Universe.” –Nightfall by Isaac Asimov

In three previous posts, we explored the many judgments of Revelation – how they are impacting us today and what they mean for our future.  We reviewed the symbolism involved with these judgments and how I believe they should be interpreted.  

As I stated in the previous posts – I believe that the Lord’s judgments are present in the world today – they are not going to somehow impact the world only during a future 7 year tribulation period.  I believe that we can look at the world today and recognize God’s judgments – and get a good idea how they will progress as we near the time of the bowl judgments. 

We should not be looking for some type of obvious ‘supernatural’ event (like water actually turning into blood or the light from the Sun being supernaturally dimmed) – we should look at what is happening in the world and comparing it to God’s Word.  As I’ve stated many times, worldly people will always have a ‘logical’ explanation for events happening in the world – they simply will not admit that there is a holy God overseeing and impacting our world.

Hopefully, you now know better.

I’m writing a fourth post on this subject because there are a couple of judgments that I need to clarify – judgments that I could not understand – until now. 

In multiple verses we are told about a ‘great earthquake’ and huge ‘hailstones’ that impact the earth near the end of this age.  Again – I don’t believe that ‘hailstones’ are simply going to appear one day or that the earth is simply going to experience some type of ‘supernatural’ earthquake – with neither judgment having a worldly explanation.

My thought process has always been – even though God is the ultimate cause of these judgments - what is going to happen in our world/universe to cause these events?  What will be the worldly reason for these events?

Until now – I had absolutely no clue.

Before we look at what I believe is a very good possibility to explain these future judgments – let’s review the verses in the Bible describing these events.

“The seventh angel poured out his bowl into the air, and out of the temple came a loud voice from the throne, saying, “It is done!” Then there came flashes of lightning, rumblings, peals of thunder and a severe earthquake. No earthquake like it has ever occurred since mankind has been on earth, so tremendous was the quake. The great city split into three parts, and the cities of the nations collapsed. God remembered Babylon the Great and gave her the cup filled with the wine of the fury of his wrath.  Every island fled away and the mountains could not be found. From the sky huge hailstones, each weighing about a hundred pounds, fell on people. And they cursed God on account of the plague of hail, because the plague was so terrible.” (Revelation 16:17-21, emphasis added)

 “‘This is what the Sovereign LORD says: You are the one I spoke of in former days by my servants the prophets of Israel. At that time they prophesied for years that I would bring you against them.  This is what will happen in that day: When Gog attacks the land of Israel, my hot anger will be aroused, declares the Sovereign LORD.  In my zeal and fiery wrath I declare that at that time there shall be a great earthquake in the land of Israel.  The fish in the sea, the birds in the sky, the beasts of the field, every creature that moves along the ground, and all the people on the face of the earth will tremble at my presence. The mountains will be overturned, the cliffs will crumble and every wall will fall to the ground.  I will summon a sword against Gog on all my mountains, declares the Sovereign LORD. Every man’s sword will be against his brother.  I will execute judgment on him with plague and bloodshed; I will pour down torrents of rain, hailstones and burning sulfur on him and on his troops and on the many nations with him. And so I will show my greatness and my holiness, and I will make myself known in the sight of many nations. Then they will know that I am the LORD.’ (Ezekiel 38:17-23, emphasis added)

“I watched as he opened the sixth seal. There was a great earthquake. The sun turned black like sackcloth made of goat hair, the whole moon turned blood red, and the stars in the sky fell to earth, as figs drop from a fig tree when shaken by a strong wind. The heavens receded like a scroll being rolled up, and every mountain and island was removed from its place. Then the kings of the earth, the princes, the generals, the rich, the mighty, and everyone else, both slave and free, hid in caves and among the rocks of the mountains. They called to the mountains and the rocks, “Fall on us and hide us from the face of him who sits on the throne and from the wrath of the Lamb! For the great day of their wrath has come, and who can withstand it?” (Revelation 6:12-17, emphasis added)

“At that very hour there was a severe earthquake and a tenth of the city collapsed. Seven thousand people were killed in the earthquake, and the survivors were terrified and gave glory to the God of heaven.” (Revelation 11:13, emphasis added)

“Then God’s temple in heaven was opened, and within his temple was seen the ark of his covenant. And there came flashes of lightning, rumblings, peals of thunder, an earthquake and a severe hailstorm.” (Revelation 11:19, emphasis added)

So – we see mention of a great earthquake and mention of hailstones/hailstorms in multiple verses. These judgments cause cities to collapse, mountains to crumble and every mountain and island will be ‘removed from its place’.  The people on earth during this time are terrified.  Serious business – the whole earth is being affected in a major way.

When thinking about these judgments – the first thought that comes to mind is – what in the world could cause something of this magnitude? The answer is – the cause won’t come from this world.

There’s no need to explain the mention of a great earthquake – the description is crystal clear.  This earthquake is so great – it affects the entire earth – causing mountains to crumble, islands to disappear under the sea and destroys much of the world’s cities.  Complete devastation.

While we are given a clear description of this great earthquake and the devastation it causes – I don’t see any clues that could tell us what would cause it from the world’s perspective.

I believe the key to unlocking this earthquake/hailstone mystery lies with the description of the hailstones and the impact they have on the earth.  Let’s look closely at the description of the hailstones and see if we can solve this mystery.

The first thing that should get our attention is that these hailstones cause everyone to hide in caves. Basically, the surface of the earth is being assaulted – and the only way for people to escape – is to go underground.  What could cause the world’s people to seek safety underground?  Whatever it is – it’s not a one time event – there are numerous hailstones impacting the earth over a period of time.

Are these actual hailstones?  No. This is happening worldwide – these hailstones are impacting the world – not an isolated area.  The Lord is using the word ‘hailstone’ to tell us that these objects are falling from the sky like hailstones – but they are not actual hailstones. 

We are given clues to solve the mystery:

1. They weigh approximately 100 lbs (Revelation 16:21)
2. These hailstones are described in connection with ‘burning sulfur’. We can reasonably assume that fire is associated with them. (Ezekiel 38:22)
3. And the final piece of the puzzle – we are told that ‘the stars in the sky fell to earth’

These hailstones do not originate in our atmosphere – they originate from space.  What is described here are objects from space impacting the earth – multiple times.

At this point, if this was all we knew – then we could say that this judgment will result when comets, meteors or asteroids – hit the earth at some point in the future.

However, if we review some information recently proposed by the scientific community – I believe we have a very good explanation for what is going to cause these events to happen.  In another year or two – we may even be able to get a general idea of the timeframe these hailstones may hit us.

A couple of weeks ago I came across an article on CNN.com that described a theory by two scientists who have proposed that the Sun may have a companion star.  I know what you’re thinking – how is this possible?  We’ve always been told that our solar system only has one star – surrounded by planets. 

What if we’ve missed something?

As our knowledge of the solar system has increased in recent years – we have discovered other large dwarf planets beyond Pluto.

One such dwarf planet (Sedna) lies billions of miles past Pluto and has an orbital path that takes it approximately 12,000 years to orbit the sun.  There’s just one problem – based on our current knowledge of the solar system – Sedna’s orbit cannot be explained.

"Sedna shouldn't be there," said Brown. "There's no way to put Sedna where it is. It never comes close enough to be affected by the Sun, but it never goes far enough away from the Sun to be affected by other stars." Perhaps a massive unseen object is responsible for Sedna's mystifying orbit, its gravitational influence keeping Sedna fixed in that far-distant portion of space? -Leslie Mullen, Astrobiology Magazine

The article had links to other articles – and I eventually discovered that this theory that the sun may have an undetected companion star – was first proposed by Dr. Richard Muller in a paper in 1984 and later published in a book entitled ‘Nemesis’.

You may be wondering what could cause scientists to look for a companion star when it appears that none exists.

Good question – and believe it or not - the answer lies with the extinction of the dinosaurs.

Would you believe that there appears to be evidence that life on earth is devastated approximately every 26 million years (see articles at end of this post)?  It’s one thing to believe that a random meteorite or asteroid hit the earth – killing the dinosaurs.  It’s something else entirely – if the earth appears to get hit periodically every 26 million years. 

If the earth is getting hit periodically - what could cause this?

We have always assumed that we completely understood our solar system – it now appears that we may be missing something – something very important.

The only thing that could explain the earth being hit periodically – would be something in space that we have not seen – something that has a very large mass and has a very large orbital path – something that periodically causes comets from the outer solar system to be hurled into the inner solar system.

NASA is currently searching for this companion star – with the first report due in the next few months.  Will we find something?  Time will tell. 

If we do find a brown or red dwarf star in an orbit around the sun – the first order of business will be calculating its orbit.  Once the orbit is calculated – we’ll know if we should be concerned about its potential impact on the earth.  If the star exists – and we can calculate its orbit – I’m willing to bet that there are going to be some very concerned scientists.

I recommend that you read the articles below and then re-read the judgments above.  Could a companion star cause comets to hit the earth?  Yes.  Could the gravitational pull from this star cause massive earthquakes on earth as it approaches us?  Are the recent major earthquakes around the globe caused by an unseen gravitational force?  It’s certainly possible – we won’t know until we find something.

With this additional information – let’s take another look at the first four trumpet judgments:

 ^“The first angel sounded his trumpet, and there came hail and fire mixed with blood, and it was hurled down on the earth. A third of the earth was burned up, a third of the trees were burned up, and all the green grass was burned up.


The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze, was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood, a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed.


The third angel sounded his trumpet, and a great star, blazing like a torch, fell from the sky on a third of the rivers and on the springs of water— the name of the star is Wormwood. A third of the waters turned bitter, and many people died from the waters that had become bitter.


The fourth angel sounded his trumpet, and a third of the sun was struck, a third of the moon, and a third of the stars, so that a third of them turned dark. A third of the day was without light, and also a third of the night.” –Revelation 8:7-12)

When I first began to study these trumpet judgments, I focused on the results of these judgments and compared them to what is happening on earth.  Looking at the world today, it’s easy to see that human population growth coupled with climate change is destroying vegetation around the globe, our seas are under great stress due to numerous factors and the availability of fresh water has become a serious issue.  I simply couldn’t understand how we could be hit by numerous comets/asteroids over a relatively short amount of time.  It’s becoming clear to me now.

Although I still believe that these judgments are describing all of the things happening in the world today, when we view these verses with the other verses regarding ‘stars’ falling from the sky – I believe we are reading about how these judgments end.  These verses are telling us that – eventually – some comets/meteors/asteroids hit land – affecting the earth’s vegetation – and some hit the oceans – killing sea animals and destroying ships on the seas.

I now believe that it will be comets hitting the earth that darken our skies.  Other factors certainly may contribute to the dirt/dust in our atmosphere – but it will most likely be comet/meteor impacts that cause our skies to darken.

Let’s review Revelation chapter 9, verses 1-2:

“The fifth angel sounded his trumpet, and I saw a star that had fallen from the sky to the earth. The star was given the key to the shaft of the Abyss. When he opened the Abyss, smoke rose from it like the smoke from a gigantic furnace. The sun and sky were darkened by the smoke from the Abyss.” (Revelation 9:1-2)

Once again we see that a ‘star’ has fallen from the sky and it is this ‘star’ that causes smoke to darken our skies.

We have previously reviewed what the Lord had to say about the end of this age when we studied Matthew chapter 24.  I think it’s important that we understand what is meant when Jesus mentions ‘birth pains’. 

“Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. All these are the beginning of birth pains.” – Matthew 24:7-8

What happens during labor? As labor progresses – contractions happen more frequently and are more intense. This is what we’re going to witness on earth.  We should expect to experience more frequent earthquakes with greater intensity as this age progresses.

The culmination of all of this is one massive earthquake that impacts the entire earth.

I know that if you are looking at all of this from a worldly perspective – it’s not good news.  The problem is that you are on the outside looking in.  It’s time for you to know your Creator.  He will replace your fear with courage and hope.  He – and He alone – can turn you into the person He created you to be.

The true Christian does not place his faith and hope in this fallen world – we can see past all of this.

The end of this world is the result of our fateful decision to disregard God’s guidance and listen to God’s adversary – and we have continued this disobedience throughout human history.  The future I am describing here is the inevitable result of our disobedience.  We have chosen unwisely – and the results of our poor choices will be catastrophic.

Although our future will be extremely difficult – as Christians we know that we have been promised something greater. This is where we set our sights – on the Lord’s kingdom.  We have overcome this world and endure it for Him - and we look forward to the time when the Lord will fulfill his promise to us. 

Will bad things happen to this world?  Yes.  Does our focus change when bad things happen?  No. 

We are not moved by this world and its ruler.

This fallen world will end and we will then receive our inheritance.

The old order of things will pass away – and He will make all things new.

This story will end – and a new one will begin.

“Do not let your hearts be troubled. You believe in God;  believe also in me.  My Father’s house has many rooms; if that were not so, would I have told you that I am going there to prepare a place for you? And if I go and prepare a place for you, I will come back and take you to be with me that you also may be where I am. You know the way to the place where I am going.” – John 14:1-4

Then I saw “a new heaven and a new earth,” for the first heaven and the first earth had passed away, and there was no longer any sea.  I saw the Holy City, the new Jerusalem, coming down out of heaven from God, prepared as a bride beautifully dressed for her husband.  And I heard a loud voice from the throne saying, “Look! God’s dwelling place is now among the people, and he will dwell with them. They will be his people, and God himself will be with them and be their God.  ‘He will wipe every tear from their eyes. There will be no more death or mourning or crying or pain, for the old order of things has passed away.”

 He who was seated on the throne said, “I am making everything new!” Then he said, “Write this down, for these words are trustworthy and true.”

 He said to me: “It is done. I am the Alpha and the Omega, the Beginning and the End. To the thirsty I will give water without cost from the spring of the water of life. Those who are victorious will inherit all this, and I will be their God and they will be my children. But the cowardly, the unbelieving, the vile, the murderers, the sexually immoral, those who practice magic arts, the idolaters and all liars—they will be consigned to the fiery lake of burning sulfur. This is the second death.” – Revelation 21:1-8

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Isaac Asimov wrote numerous science fiction novels before he died in 1992.  One of his most famous novels was ‘Nightfall’.  The novel describes a world with six suns that keeps the planet in continuous sunlight – the inhabitants of this planet never experience the darkness of night.  Eventually, an astronomer discovers that there is an unknown planet orbiting them – that periodically causes a total eclipse.  What happens to people accustomed to perpetual daylight  - when they are plunged into complete darkness?

I believe that at some point in the future – we are going to experience the same scenario.

Meteor Explodes Over Russia

Space probes feel cosmic tug of bizarre forces

NASA Baffled by Unexplained Force Acting on Space Probes

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Scientists, telescope hunt massive hidden object in space

Some scientists think a brown dwarf or gas giant bigger than Jupiter could be at the outer reaches of the solar system. In this image showing relative size, the white object at the upper left edge represents the sun.

February 15th, 2011

09:03 AM ET

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/15/scientists-telescope-hunt-massive-hidden-object-in-space/?iref=allsearch

You know how you sometimes can sense that something is present even though you can't see it? Well, astronomers are getting that feeling about a giant, hidden object in space.

And when we say giant, we mean GIANT.

Evidence is mounting that either a brown dwarf star or a gas giant planet islurking at the outermost reaches of our solar system, far beyond Pluto. The theoretical object, dubbed Tyche, is estimated to be four times the size of Jupiter and 15,000 times farther from the sun than Earth, according to a story in the British paper The Independent.

Astrophysicists John Matese and Daniel Whitmire from the University of Louisiana at Lafayette think data from NASA's infrared space telescope WISE will confirm Tyche's existence and location within two years.

The presence of such a massive object in the solar system's far-flung Oort Cloud could explain a barrage of comets from an unexpected direction, according to a December article at Space.com.

Its 27 million-year orbit could also explain a pattern of mass extinctions on Earth, scientists say.

Brown dwarfs are cold "failed" stars; their dimness and lack of heat radiation can make them hard to detect. Gas giants are huge planets – like Saturn, Jupiter and Neptune – that are made up of gases and may lack a solid surface like Earth's.

Whitmire told The Independent that Tyche will probably be composed of hydrogen and helium and have colorful spots, bands and clouds like Jupiter.

"You'd also expect it to have moons," he said. "All the outer planets have them."

Tyche was first hypothesized in 1984 as Nemesis, a dark companion star to the sun. It's been the subject of astronomical research and debate ever since. In July, another Space.com article said the celestial evidence suggests Tyche could not possibly exist.

To distinguish it from the Nemesis star theory, Matese and Whitmire are calling their object Tyche, after the good sister of the goddess Nemesis in Greek mythology.

Their research is published in Icarus, the International Journal of Solar System Studies.

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Sun's Nemesis Pelted Earth with Comets, Study Suggests

by Leslie Mullen, Astrobiology Magazine

Date: 11 March 2010 Time: 08:16 AM ET

NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, or WISE, will uncover many "failed" stars, or brown dwarfs, in infrared light. This diagram shows a brown dwarf in relation to Earth, Jupiter, a low-mass star and the sun. CREDIT: NASA  View full size image

http://www.space.com/8028-sun-nemesis-pelted-earth-comets-study-suggests.html

A dark object may be lurking near our solar system, occasionally kicking comets in our direction?

Nicknamed "Nemesis" or "The Death Star," this undetected object could be a red or brown dwarf star, or an even darker presence several times the mass of Jupiter.

Why do scientists think something could be hidden beyond the edge of our solar system? Originally, Nemesis was suggested as a way to explain a cycle of mass extinctions on Earth.

The paleontologists David Raup and Jack Sepkoski claim that, over the last 250 million years, life on Earth has faced extinction in a 26-million-year cycle. Astronomers proposed comet impacts as a possible cause for these catastrophes.

Our solar system is surrounded by a vast collection of icy bodies called the Oort Cloud.?If our Sun were part of a binary system in which two gravitationally-bound stars orbit a common center of mass, this interaction could disturb the Oort Cloud on a periodic basis, sending comets whizzing towards us.

An asteroid impact is famously responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, but large comet impacts may be equally deadly. A comet may have been the cause of the Tunguska event in Russia in 1908. That explosion had about a thousand times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, and it flattened an estimated 80 million trees over an 830 square mile area.

While there's little doubt about the destructive power of cosmic impacts, there is no evidence that comets have periodically caused mass extinctions on our planet. The theory of periodic extinctions itself is still debated, with many insisting that more proof is needed. Even if the scientific consensus is that extinction events don't occur in a predictable cycle, there are now other reasons to suspect a dark companion to the Sun.

The Footprint of Nemesis

A recently-discovered dwarf planet, named Sedna, has an extra-long and usual elliptical orbit around the Sun. Sedna is one of the most distant objects yet observed, with an orbit ranging between 76 and 975 AU (where 1 AU is the distance between the Earth and the Sun). Sedna's orbit is estimated to last between 10.5 to 12 thousand years. Sedna's discoverer, Mike Brown of Caltech, noted in a Discover magazine article that Sedna's location doesn't make sense.

"Sedna shouldn't be there," said Brown. "There's no way to put Sedna where it is. It never comes close enough to be affected by the Sun, but it never goes far enough away from the Sun to be affected by other stars."?

Perhaps a massive unseen object is responsible for Sedna's mystifying orbit, its gravitational influence keeping Sedna fixed in that far-distant portion of space.

"My surveys have always looked for objects closer and thus moving faster," Brown said to Astrobiology Magazine. "I would have easily overlooked something so distant and slow moving as Nemesis."

John Matese, Emeritus Professor of Physics at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, suspects Nemesis exists for another reason. The comets in the inner solar system seem to mostly come from the same region of the Oort Cloud, and Matese thinks the gravitational influence of a solar companion is disrupting that part of the cloud, scattering comets in its wake. His calculations suggest Nemesis is between 3 to 5 times the mass of Jupiter, rather than the 13 Jupiter masses or greater that some scientists think is a necessary quality of a brown dwarf. Even at this smaller mass, however, many astronomers would still classify it as a low mass star rather than a planet, since the circumstances of birth for stars and planets differ.

The Oort Cloud is thought to extend about 1 light year from the Sun. Matese estimates Nemesis is 25,000 AU away (or about one-third of a light year). The next-closest known star to the Sun is Proxima Centauri, located 4.2 light years away.

Richard Muller of the University of California Berkeley first suggested the Nemesis theory, and even wrote a popular science book on the topic. In his view, Nemesis is a red dwarf star 1.5 light years away. Many scientists counter that such a wide orbit is inherently unstable and could not have lasted long — certainly not long enough to have caused the extinctions seen in Earth's fossil record. But Muller says this instability has resulted in an orbit that has changed greatly over billions of years, and in the next billion years Nemesis will be thrown free of the solar system.

Binary star systems are common in the galaxy. It is estimated that one-third of the stars in the Milky Way are either binary or part of a multiple-star system.

Red dwarfs are also common — in fact, astronomers say they are the most common type of star in the galaxy. Brown dwarfs are also thought to be common, but there are only a few hundred known at this time because they are so difficult to see. Red and brown dwarfs are smaller and cooler than our Sun, and do not shine brightly. If red dwarfs can be compared to the red embers of a dying fire, then brown dwarfs would be the smoldering ash. Because they are so dim, it is plausible that the Sun could have a secret companion even though we've searched the sky for many years with a variety of instruments.

NASA's newest telescope, the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), may be able to answer the question about Nemesis once and for all.

Finding Dwarfs in the Dark

WISE looks at our universe in the infrared part of the spectrum. Like the Spitzer Space telescope, WISE is hunting for heat. The difference is that WISE has a much wider field of view, and so is able to scan a greater portion of the sky for distant objects.

WISE began scanning the sky on January 14, and NASA recently released the mission's first images. The mission will map the entire sky until October, when the spacecraft's coolant runs out.

Part of the WISE mission is to search for brown dwarfs, and NASA expects it could find one thousand of the dim stellar objects within 25 light years of our solar system.

Davy Kirkpatrick at NASA's Infrared Processing and Analysis Center at Caltech found nothing when he searched for Nemesis using data from the Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS). Now Kirkpatrick is part of the WISE science team, ready to search again for any signs of a companion to our Sun.

Kirkpatrick doesn't think Nemesis will be the red dwarf star with an enormous orbit described by Muller. In his view, Matese's description of Nemesis as a low mass object closer to home is more plausible.

"I think the possibility that the Sun could harbor a companion of another sort is not a crazy idea," said Kirkpatrick. "There might be a distant object in a more stable, more circular orbit that has gone unnoticed so far."

Ned Wright, professor of astronomy and physics at UCLA and the principle investigator for the WISE mission said that WISE will easily see an object with a mass a few times that of Jupiter and located 25,000 AU away, as suggested by Matese.

"This is because Jupiter is self-luminous like a brown dwarf," said Wright. "But for planets less massive than Jupiter in the far outer solar system, WISE will be less sensitive."

Neither Kirkpatrick nor Wright think Nemesis is disrupting the Oort cloud and sending comets towards Earth, however. Because they envision a more benign orbit, they prefer the name "Tyche" (the good sister).

Regardless of what they expect to find, the WISE search won't focus on one particular region of the sky.

"The great thing about WISE, as was also true of 2MASS, is that it's an all-sky survey," said Kirkpatrick. "There will be some regions such as the Galactic Plane where the observations are less sensitive or fields more crowded, but we'll search those areas too. So we're not preferentially targeting certain directions."

We may not have an answer to the Nemesis question until mid-2013. WISE needs to scan the sky twice in order to generate the time-lapsed images astronomers use to detect objects in the outer solar system. The change in location of an object between the time of the first scan and the second tells astronomers about the object's location and orbit.

"I don't suspect we'll have completed the search for candidate objects until mid-2012, and then we may need up to a year of time to complete telescopic follow-up of those objects," said Kirkpatrick.

Even if Nemesis is not found, the WISE telescope will help shed light on the darkest corners of the solar system. The telescope can be used to search for dwarf planets like Pluto that orbit the Sun off the solar system's ecliptic plane. The objects that make up the Oort Cloud are too small and far away for WISE to see, but it will be able to track potentially dangerous comets and asteroids closer to home.

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Nemesis

By Dr. Richard Muller

Note: My most recent paper (2002) relevant to the Nemesis theory is now available as a pdf document: Measurement of the lunar impact record for the past 3.5 billion years, and implications for the Nemesis theory, Geol. Soc. of America Special Paper 356, pp 659-665 (2002).

Origin of the theory

The "Nemesis Theory" was an outgrowth of the discovery of Alvarez et al., that the impact of a large (>10 km diameter) comet or asteroid was responsible for the great mass extinction that took place 65 million years ago.

Studies of the fossil record by Dave Raup and Jack Sepkoski shows that this was not an isolated event, but one of several mass extinctions that appear to occur on a regular 26 million year cycle. Their original paper analyzed marine fossil families, and was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, vol 81, pages 801-805 (1984).

The original extinction data of Raup and Sepkoski are replotted in the following figure.

The vertical axis shows the "extinction rate." This was taken from the values given by Raup and Sepkoski for the percent family extinctions at each geologic boundary. In order to take into account the uncertainty in the boundary ages, each data point was plotted as a Gaussian, with width equal to the uncertainty, and area equal to the extinction rate. This plot thus represents a statistical estimate of the extinction rate vs. time. The individual Gaussians for each stage boundary are shown as dotted lines. The extinction 65 million years ago is indicated with the little dinosaur icon.

The peak near 11 Ma is real, but exaggerated by the requirement that the plot go to zero at the present. Arrows are plotted every 26 million years. Note that many of these are close to the peaks in the extinction rate. This is the apparent 26 million year periodicity discovered by Raup and Sepkoski.

There have been many statistical studies of these data. Although several studies indicate the periodicity is significant, not everyone agrees. I suggest that you decide for yourself. If you decide that the extinctions are not statistically significant, then there is no need for the Nemesis theory.

Additional work by Sepkoski shows that the periodicity is also present for fossil genera. His results were published in the Journal of the Geological Society of London, vol 146, pp 7-19 (1989). Figure 2 from this paper is shown below. Please note that the time axis has been reversed compared to that of the previous figure.

Plotted is the per-genus extinction rate (in units of extinctions/genus/Myr) for 49 sampling intervals. The upper time series (labeled Total) is for Sepkoski's entire data set of 17,500 genera, whereas the lower "filtered" time series is for a subset of 11,000 from which genera confined to single stratigraphic intervals have been excluded. The vertical lines are plotted at 26 Myr intervals.

The Nemesis theory was devised to account for this regularity in the timing of the mass extinctions reported by Raup and Sepkoski. According to this model, a companion star orbiting the Sun perturbs the Oort comet cloud every 26 Myr causing comet showers in the inner solar system. One or more of these comets strike the Earth causing a mass extinction. The Nemesis theory was originally published in Nature by Davis, Hut, and Muller (vol 308, pp 715-717, 1984). A longer description of the work leading up to the theory was written in book form: "Nemesis," by Richard Muller (Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1988). You can read Chapter 1 Cosmic Terrorist. here. This book is out of print, but I have some extra copies. Contact me RAMuller@LBL.gov if you need a copy.

Stability of the Nemesis orbit

There is a great deal of confusion among astronomers about the stability of the Nemesis orbit. Even many theorists who should know better believe that the orbit is unstable, and that the original Nemesis paper was in error. However detailed calculations by Piet Hut at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton show that the original estimate about the orbit were correct. Hut's results were published in Nature, vol 311, pp. 636-640 (1984). In our original paper we had stated that the orbit presently has a stability time constant of approximately one billion years. Many people naively assumed that this was incompatible with the 4.5 billion-year age of the solar system. But unlike the lifetime of a radioactive element, the lifetime of the Nemesis orbit is not predicted to be constant with time. In fact, Hut has shown that the lifetime decreases linearly, not exponentially, with age. The expected orbit lifetime when the solar system was formed was (presumably) about 5.5 billion years. When nearby stars pass the solar system, the orbit of Nemesis is given slight boosts in energy. The Nemesis orbit becomes larger and less stable. At present, the Nemesis orbit has a semi-major axis of about 1.5 light-years, and the orbit is expected to remain bound to the sun for only another billion years.

Note that the Nemesis theory predicts that the periodicity should not be precise. Perturbations from passing stars are not sufficient to disrupt the orbit, but they are sufficient to cause a slight (a few Myr) jitter in the interval between extinctions.

Why do so many people think the orbit is unstable? The basic answer is that scientists often don't have time to read the literature, so they depend on the summaries of others. Click here for more details.

The Search for Nemesis

Nemesis is most likely a red dwarf star, magnitude between 7 and 12. Virtually all such stars have been catalogued, but very few of them have had their distance measured. It is likely that Nemesis, if it exists, will be visible with binoculars or a small telescope.

We don't need a large telescope to find Nemesis. We need a small or medium telescope, and enough time to look at and analyze 3000 candidate stars. A series of images taken throughout the year should allow us to measure the large parallax of this star. We are also eliminating the stars measured by the Hipparcos satellite.

We began the search for Nemesis using the automated telescope at Leuschner Observatory. However this telescope was not designed for the heavy use it was receiving from this search and from our automated search for nearby supernova.

Fortunately, several all-sky surveys are underway that should find Nemesis in the next few years, if it is there, and rule out Nemesis if they don't. (Nemesis could hide if it were a black hole, but that is not very plausible.) These surveys include Pan-Starrs and the LSST.

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Huge Impact Crater Found in Remote Congo

Expedition confirms a meteor hit central Africa millions of years ago.

A computer model of the Luizi crater based on satellite data.

Diagram courtesy Ludovic Ferriere and SRTM/NASA

Victoria Jaggard

National Geographic News

Published March 8, 2011

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/03/110308-meteor-impact-crater-found-confirmed-congo-ferriere-science/?source=link_tw20110308news-congo

A circular depression deep in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)has been confirmed as the first known impact crater in central Africa, a new study says. The find brings the number of known meteor craters on Earth to 182.

(Related: "'Fresh' Crater Found in Egypt; Changes Impact Risk?")

The so-called Luizi structure was first described in a German geological report from 1919. But without further fieldwork, it was impossible to say for sure that the 10.5-mile-wide (17-kilometer-wide) feature had been made by a meteor impact.

On other planets, such as Mercury and Mars, it's easier to identify impact craters based only on their shapes, since these worlds no longer have geologic forces making major changes to their surfaces.

(Related: "Martian 'Lake Michigan' Filled Crater, Minerals Hint.")

But on Earth, many older craters have likely been erased by tectonic activity or erosion, while others are so covered with dense vegetation or sediments, like Luizi, that they're almost impossible to spot without satellites.

What's more, the crater-like structures we do see may have been made by volcanoes, collapsed underground chambers, and other forces that have nothing to do with impacts, said study leader Ludovic Ferrière, curator of the rock collection at the Natural History Museum of Vienna in Austria.

"On Earth, to confirm it's an impact, you have to go in the field because you need evidence of high pressures and temperatures," Ferrière said.

Crater Expedition Had Brushes With Snakes, Poachers

The researcher first became interested in the Luizi structure after seeing satellite pictures published in the 1990s.

By studying the available satellite data, Ferrière and colleagues estimated that the structure has an elevated rim about 1,148 feet (350 meters) high, as well as an interior ring and a central depression.

(Related: "Huge Impact Crater Uncovered in Canadian Forest.")

But to truly confirm Luizi as an impact crater, the researchers had to mount an expedition to the politically tumultuous DRC. (Related: "Rare Gorillas at Risk as Rebels Seize Congo Park.")

"I was working for a year just to find a contact there, because you need a local person to help you find your way around," Ferrière said.

With funding from the National Geographic Society/Waitt Foundation program, Ferrière—then a postdoc at the University of Western Ontario in Canada—visited the crater site in June 2010 with colleagues from the University of Lubumbashi. (The National Geographic Society owns National Geographic News.)

"I flew direct to Lubumbashi, the second largest city in the DRC. From there we had to drive from the city to the crater," he said.

"I had looked at maps and planned a route before I left. But when I got there, my contact told me there is no bridge across part of my intended path. We had to take some crazy gravel roads with big potholes inside. These are not good roads to drive on, even with a four-wheel-drive car."

The team set up camp in a small village about 8 miles (13 kilometers) from the crater rim, recruiting two local guides/porters and a soldier to help them safely navigate the wild terrain.

"The crater is in a national park, and I thought it would be like the jungles of South America," Ferrière said. "Instead it was a tree savanna—a big plataeu with dry grass. The grass was sometimes more than a meter [3.2 feet] high."

Standing on the rim of the Luizi structure, Ferrière could see skinny trees that seemed to fill the depression, with the crater's distant edge rising like small hills.

Despite the remote, wooded terrain, "we saw no large animals, only snakes. But we did see a lot of remnants of poachers. Sometimes we'd come to a site and the doused fires were still hot."

Congo Rocks Had a Shock

Ferrière's team spent about a week at the crater collecting samples, which were sent back to the lab in Canada for analysis.

"I found so-called shatter cones, which are features in the rock only found in impact structures," he said. The nested, conical shapes in such features are evidence that the bedrock has been exposed to extreme pressure from a shock wave.

The crater rocks also contained an abundance of shocked quartz, a version of the mineral known to form only from impacts or nuclear blasts, Ferrière said.

"Everybody will believe me now, I think, that this is an impact site."

(Related: "Meteorite Impact Reformulated Earth's Crust, Study Shows.")

The scientists think the Luizi crater was made by a meteor more than 0.6 mile (a kilometer) wide that slammed into what is now the DRC at about 45,000 miles (72,000 kilometers) an hour.

For now it's unclear how old the crater is—the scientists can say only that the affected rocks are about 575 million years old, "but we know it's younger than that, because the rocks have been excavated," Ferrière said.

"It would be nice to do more fieldwork, because the shape of the structure with this inner ring can tell us about the exact formation process involved," he added. In the meantime, the researcher will continue to study the rock samples, now housed at the Vienna museum.

"There is still a lot to discover" about Luizi, he said.
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"Fresh" Crater Found in Egypt; Changes Impact Risk?

Geophysicists work in the newfound Kamil crater in an undated picture.

Photograph courtesy Museo Nazionale dell'Antartide Università di Siena

Andrew Fazekas

for National Geographic News

Published July 22, 2010

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/07/100722-science-space-egypt-kamil-crater-meteor-meteorite-impact-hazard/

A small impact crater discovered in the Egyptian desert could change estimates for impact hazards to our planet, according to a new study.

One of the best preserved craters yet found on Earth, the Kamil crater was initially discovered in February during a survey of satellite images on Google Earth. Researchers think the crater formed within the past couple thousand years.

The Italian-Egyptian team that found the crater in pictures recently visited and studied the 147-foot-wide (45-meter-wide), 52-foot-deep (16-meter-deep) hole. The team also collected thousands of pieces of the space rock that littered the surrounding desert.

Based on their calculations, the team thinks that a 4.2-foot-wide (1.3-meter-wide) solid iron meteor weighing 11,023 to 22,046 pounds (5,000 to 10,000 kilograms) smashed into the desert—nearly intact—at speeds exceeding 2.1 miles (3.5 kilometers) a second.

There are no hard numbers for how many meteors this size might currently be on a collision course with Earth, but scientists think the potential threats could be in the tens of thousands.

Current impact models state that iron meteors around this size and mass should break into smaller chunks before impact. (Related: "Comet 'Shower' Killed Ice Age Mammals?")

Instead, the existence of the newfound crater implies that up to 35 percent of these iron giants may actually survive whole—and thus have greater destructive power.

Egypt Crater Still Shows Splatter

Estimating impact hazards to Earth isn't an exact science, since only 176 impact craters have been discovered so far, according to the Earth Impact Database, a resource maintained by the University of New Brunswick in Canada.

Most models are based on the number of impact craters on the moon, which has almost no atmosphere and so doesn't experience the same erosion processes as those on Earth.

"Current models predict that around a thousand to ten thousand such craters should have formed [on Earth] in one million years," said study co-author Luigi Folco, a scientist with the University of Siena in Italy.

"The reason why they are rare, however, is that, on Earth, weathering rates are high—small craters are usually easily eroded or buried."

(Related: "India Asteroid Killed Dinosaurs, Made Largest Crater?")

Folco and colleagues were particularly surprised to find that the newfound, bowl-shaped crater has a prominent splatter pattern of bedrock shot up by the original impact blast.

Known as ejecta rays, these features are more often seen on other planets and moons with thin atmospheres.

The exact age of the Egyptian crater is still uncertain, the team reported this week in the online edition of the journal Science. Geologic evidence points to a relatively recent event, Folco said—although it's unlikely that any humans were around to witness the impact.

"During our field work we could see that some of the bedrock material ejected from the crater overlies prehistoric structures in the area," Folco said.

"We know from literature that the human occupation of this region ended about 5,000 years ago, with the onset of hyperarid conditions. Therefore we think that the impact occurred afterwards."

(See "Exodus From Drying Sahara Gave Rise to Pharaohs, Study Says.")

Meteor Threat Greater Than Realized

If future meteors like the Egyptian rock are more likely to remain intact, their energy on impact would be more focused, causing greater damage, said John Spray, a crater expert with the University of New Brunswick who isn't connected to the study.

Still, the probability of such a meteor hitting something critical for society, such as a major city, would be reduced, because the falling rocks would not be as spread out.

"Overall, the threat from impacts is probably greater than people realize, but historically there is very little information on this, and we just have not been collecting data for all that long," Spray said. (See "100 Years After Tunguska, Earth Not Ready for Meteors.")

"Our knowledge is very limited, so events such as these are quite important for helping us understand the frequency and nature of impacts that affect our planet."
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India Asteroid Killed Dinosaurs, Made Largest Crater?

Ker Than
for National Geographic News

October 16, 2009

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091016-asteroid-impact-india-dinosaurs.html

The dinosaurs' demise may have been due to an asteroid double-whammy—two giant space rocks that struck near Mexico and India a few hundred thousand years apart, scientists say.

For decades one of the more popular theories for what killed the dinosaurs has focused on a single asteroid impact 65 million years ago.

A six-mile-wide (ten-kilometer-wide) asteroid is thought to have carved out the Chicxulub crater off Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula, triggering worldwide climate changes that led to the mass extinction.

But the controversial new theory says the dinosaurs were actually finished off by another 25-mile-wide (40-kilometer-wide) asteroid. That space rock slammed into the planet off the western coast of India about 300,000 yearsafter Chicxulub, experts say.

"The dinosaurs were really unlucky," said study co-author Sankar Chatterjee, a paleontologist at Texas Tech University in Lubbock.

Chatterjee thinks this second asteroid impact created a 300-mile-wide (500-kilometer-wide) depression on the Indian Ocean seafloor, which his team began exploring in 1996.

His team has dubbed this depression the Shiva crater, after the Hindu god of destruction and renewal.

"If we are correct," Chatterjee said, "this is the largest crater known on Earth."

Dinosaur-Killer Asteroid Boosted Volcanoes?

The Shiva asteroid impact was powerful enough to vaporize Earth's crust where it struck, allowing the much hotter mantle to well up and create the crater's tall, jagged rim, Chatterjee estimates.

What's more, his team thinks the impact caused a piece of the Indian subcontinent to break off and drift toward Africa, creating what are now the Seychelles islands (see map).

The Shiva impact may also have enhanced volcanic eruptions that were already occurring in what is now western India, Chatterjee added.

Some scientists have speculated that the noxious gases released by the Indian volcanoes, called the Deccan Traps, were crucial factors in the dinosaurs' extinction.

(Related: "'Dinosaur Killer' Asteroid Only One Part of New Quadruple-Whammy Theory.")

"It's very tempting to think that the impact actually triggered the volcanism," Chatterjee said.

"But that may not be true. It looks like the volcanism was already happening, and the [Shiva] impact just made it worse."
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"Dinosaur Killer" Asteroid Only One Part of New Quadruple-Whammy Theory

Richard A. Lovett
for National Geographic News

October 30, 2006

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/10/061030-dinosaur-killer.html

Offshore of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula is a 110-mile-wide (180-kilometer-wide) crater dubbed Chicxulub, widely believed to be the site of an asteroid impact 65 million years ago that wiped out the dinosaurs (map of Mexico).

The mass extinction, thought to have obliterated two-thirds of the world's species in total, has been dubbed the K-T extinction because it bridges the Cretaceous and Tertiary geologic periods.

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But a single asteroid impact doesn't tell the whole story, says a small but vocal group of geologists led by Princeton University paleontologist Gerta Keller in New Jersey.

Keller and her collaborators believe that the Chicxulub impact predated the K-T extinction by about 300,000 years.

The dinosaurs, they say, were killed not by a lone asteroid strike but by the quadruple whammy of global climate change, massive volcanism, and not one but two gigantic collisions. (Related: "Yucatán Asteroid Didn't Kill Dinosaurs, Study Says" [March 9, 2004].)

Peeling Back the Layers

The complex scientific detective story involves tiny glass beads, the rare element iridium, and sediments that might be deposits from gigantic tsunamis kicked up by the Chicxulub impact.

Both sides of the debate agree that the glass was created when the Chicxulub event filled the atmosphere with vaporized rock that quickly condensed and rained to Earth as tiny spherules, about a tenth of an inch (1 to 4 millimeters) in diameter.

The opposing sides also agree that the iridium came from an iridium-rich asteroid.

The problem is that the spherules and iridium occur in separate layers of earth, or strata, separated by as much as 25 feet (8 meters) of intervening sediment.

Conventional theory says that the intervening sediment was laid down quickly by a series of tsunami waves created by the Chicxulub strike.

But a detailed analysis of the sediment layers suggests that the sediment was formed between two separate asteroid strikes, one that laid down the glass and the other the iridium.

To begin with, Keller says, the intervening sediment contains burrows from sea-bottom creatures that wouldn't have been able to dig if the seabed was being washed by violent tsunamis.

Keller's group also discovered a second layer of spherules about 13 feet (4 meters) below the disputed 25 feet (8 meters) of rock.

This strata, she says, represents the true Chicxulub spherule layer. Fossil evidence suggests that the lower layer of spherules was deposited 300,000 years before the K-T extinction. Overlying spherules were set down later, eroded from deposits elsewhere.

She has also found plankton-like fossils in the sediments above the lower-lying spherules, indicating a return to normal conditions for about 300,000 years after Chicxulub.

This suggests that Chicxulub, rather than causing widespread devastation, had essentially no long-term ecological effect, Keller says.

Geological evidence indicates that Earth was undergoing a large number of changes during the 500,000 years preceding the K-T boundary, she adds.

These included a global climate change that had slowly cooled Earth during the previous several million years. Then massive volcanism in India produced a rapid 7 to 13 degree Fahrenheit (4 to 7 degree Celsius) warming. (Related: "Did Huge Volcanic Blasts Snuff Out Dinos?" [August 23, 2005].)

The Chicxulub asteroid hit about a hundred thousand years after that, but the warming continued for another hundred thousand years, she says, until the Earth suddenly cooled again.

Then, she says, this already-stressed biota was hit by the second asteroid impact that produced the iridium layer. That was the last straw, culling out all but the species that were already adept at adapting to rapid climate fluctuations.

Keller's coworker, Thierry Adatte of the University of Neuchatel in Switzerland, adds that multiple asteroid impacts aren't as rare as people might think.

"We have found proof of a third one 200,000 years after the K-T boundary," he said. "We have a second iridium layer."'

In addition, he says, mass extinctions such as the one at the K-T boundary appear to require multiple causes.

"You really need a bad combination, like volcanism, climate change, and sea level fluctuations to have a major impact," he said.

Hotly Debated

But Keller's theory remains highly controversial.

"The whole issue hinges on the interpretation of the 'event deposits,'" sediment scientist Jan Smit of Vrije Universiteit in the Netherlands said by email.

"I think all evidence points to a single Chicxulub impact event that has caused tsunamis.... All the different sublayers ... are the results of the complicated tsunami waves' surges and associated currents."

In studying the impact's relationship to the K-T extinction, Smit adds, geologists need to look at regions distant from the Gulf of Mexico, where the geology hasn't been so strongly influenced by the direct effects of the impact.

"If you look elsewhere," he wrote, "only one impact can be documented."

But Princeton's Keller isn't likely to be deterred.

"This is more religion than anything else," she says. "A lot of people are so wedded to [the Chicxulub] theory that it seems that no evidence can ever convince them of anything else."