Saturday, September 16, 2006

Exponential Growth in a Finite World

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. ~Dr. Albert Bartlett

In the previous post, we reviewed the United State’s monetary system and how that system has placed our money supply, debt, inflation, and overall economic growth on exponential curves. We reviewed who is behind this system and why it was created. We also demonstrated that this monetary system has been adopted the world over by every major world power. There are now only a few nations throughout the world who do not have a central bank and debt-based monetary system that is growing exponentially (Not coincidentally - Iraq and Afghanistan were two of them). In case you haven’t read the previous post, I have included graphs below that show the growth of our money supply and Federal debt. It’s not hard to see that both are growing exponentially – and it’s easy to see that we are now on the steep inclines of an exponential curve in both cases. The previous discussion explained why these trends cannot continue indefinitely without a collapse of our economic system.

As I began studying and praying about these things over the past 3 years, I began to wonder – is the world’s monetary system the only thing following exponential growth? The answer, not surprisingly, is – no. What you are about to see is that many systems present in the world today are growing exponentially – not just our monetary and economic systems. You will also see – similar to our monetary system – that all of these systems are now climbing the steep incline of an exponential curve.

In this post, we’re going to take a look at some of the systems in the world today that are growing exponentially and what it means for our future. You will also see – similar to our monetary system – that the exponential growth of these systems is going to cause us serious problems in the very near future. You may ask – what does this have to do with Bible prophecies? How can studying exponential functions help us understand the Lord’s prophecies? After all, this is just math! You’re probably thinking that you didn’t like math in high school/college – and you don’t like it now. In this case, math gives us some very important clues to our future. You probably thought that your high school math teacher was crazy when he or she told you that math has practical ‘real world’ applications. I’m here to tell you that your teacher was more correct than even they knew. The truth is that we can see significant mathematical trends in the world today and how they relate to Bible prophecy if we will take the time to pay attention. I believe that the Lord has made it very clear what is happening in the world and why – if we’d only pay attention to Him and what is happening in our world. If you’ve read my posts on the judgments of Revelation, then you know that the Lord has given us warnings about our future in His Word – warnings regarding our oceans, atmosphere, earth’s temperature, plant life, famine, drinking water, etc. You’re about to see how exponential growth in the world today is pointing to serious problems regarding all of these things.

As you read through this post, you will probably ask yourself - why couldn’t I see this before? These things seem obvious – why couldn’t I see them? Remember, as always, that the world’s spiritual ruler tries to suppress the truth at all costs. How is your knowledge of Bible prophecy? How’s your Biblical knowledge? The truth is that most of us lack the Biblical knowledge required (I was certainly included) to know how events in the world today relate to God’s Word. This is not by accident. Our enemy has very deceptively led us away from the truth – just focus on your life in the here and now – and has blinded us to what is really happening in the world. Satan will always focus us on short term gains – not the long term consequences of our actions. When it comes to sin, we can certainly see this in our own lives – the consequences of making wrong choices and disobeying God. What we haven’t paid attention to – is how wrong choices will affect us on a worldwide scale.

Let’s start by looking at the most important exponential curve in the world today. The world’s population growth. The world’s population has averaged just over 1% growth throughout our history, so it has taken some time to turn the corner. It’s not hard to see that we are now on the steep incline of an exponential growth curve.

What affect has this had on the world? Resources the world over are strained (food, water, energy, etc) – and pollution is becoming a serious issue the world over. What has human population growth done to animal species throughout the world? They’re becoming extinct – at an exponential rate. It is estimated that 1/3 of the world’s species will become extinct by 2050 (Thomas et al., 2004 (Nature 427:145-148)).

(Source: Dr. Edward Wilson)

How could this trend relate to Bible prophecies? Before we answer this question, let’s take a look at another graph.

In 1950, the world’s fish catch equaled approximately 20 million metric tons. In 2002, the world’s fish catch equaled approximately 90 million metric tons. What affect is this having on overall fish stocks? It is reported that approximately 75% of the major marine fish stocks are either depleted, over exploited or being fished at their biological limit (Source: UN FAO FISHSTAT Database). World fish stocks are plummeting. Take a look at what is happening in the North Atlantic. There has been a 90% decline in predatory fish populations.

What is one of the final judgments on the world?

“The second angel poured out his bowl on the sea, and it turned into blood like that of a dead man, and every living thing in the sea died.” (Revelation 16:3)

Today, we can see that pollution, global warming and over-fishing trends are having adverse effects on sea life (see other links on my website relating to coral death, ocean dead zones, melting arctic ice, wildfires, etc.) – and we see where the Lord tells us in His Word about these things. It should not surprise us that these things are happening on a worldwide scale.

Let’s take a look at other trends following the same exponential growth curve as the world’s population. What is happening to our atmosphere as the world’s population increases exponentially? Greenhouse gases (Carbon Dioxide, Methane, etc) are increasing exponentially.

The following charts show us carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. Once again, we see the exponential curve.

It’s easy to see that the U.S. is the biggest contributor to carbon emissions (charts below). Based on what we’ve learned about our economic system (requiring ever-increasing amounts of resources to sustain the system), this shouldn’t surprise us. With only 5% of the world’s population, we consume 25% of the world’s resources and use approximately 50% of the world’s gasoline. We constantly hear how China’s growing economy is contributing to greenhouse gases, but if you view the data – it’s not hard to understand why China doesn’t really want to hear our concerns. We’re not doing anything about it – why should they?

If we view CO2 concentrations over the past 1,000 years, we see the affects of human population on our atmosphere – and the growth trend is definitely exponential.

What about methane? Methane is another greenhouse gas that could also affect our atmosphere over time – to an even larger degree. As you can see – methane is also increasing at an exponential rate. Methane concentration in our atmosphere has increased approximately 150% since 1750.

What are the possible long term consequences of increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane? There is one, overriding concern. It’s easy to see in the following graph. This graph shows the relationship of greenhouse gas concentrations to earth’s temperature.

It’s easy to observe that global temperatures move in line with carbon dioxide concentrations. When CO2 concentrations increase – global temperatures increase as well. The problem is that we’re entering uncharted territory. Global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to rise to levels we have never seen. Based on past trends, it’s certainly possible that global temperatures will follow this trend upward.

If we look at just the past 150 years – what do we see? We see the beginning of an exponential curve for both carbon dioxide emissions and global surface temperatures.

What affect will global temperature increases have on our oceans?

We can see that ocean temperatures are heading in the same direction. Ocean temperature rise results in coral bleaching, sea level rise and loss of sea ice. As I mentioned in another post, if ocean temperatures rise six degrees Celsius, there is a very real possibility that our oceans will become marine wastelands – unable to support life.

We see these temperature trends – does anything in the Bible warn us about this? Absolutely.

“The fourth angel poured out his bowl on the sun, and the sun was given power to scorch people with fire. They were seared by the intense heat and they cursed the name of God, who had control over these plagues, but they refused to repent and glorify him.” (Revelation 16:8-9)

What other problems could increased temperatures create in our world? Deserts could spread across the globe, fresh water supplies could become even more scarce and food production could be significantly reduced. Are all of these things mentioned in the Bible? Yes – see other posts on the judgments of Revelation for a complete review.

World per capita cereal production, 1961–2000

World cereal yield, 1961–2000

The above graphs shows world cereal production per capita and world cereal yield. How much more land do we have in the world to grow food? How much more yield can we extract out of existing farmland? You’ll notice that the per capita trend above is beginning to decline as our population increases. We see the same trends for other food – corn, livestock, etc.

If we consider that the world’s population is increasing exponentially and we consider the possible impact of a changing climate – it’s easy to see that it will be very difficult for world food production to keep pace with the needs of the world’s population.

We could continue to look at other trends – world oil consumption, world energy needs, etc. – and see the same exponential curves. We could look at literally hundreds of graphs – and see that each one is approaching the near vertical phase of an exponential curve. What does this mean for us? My personal belief is that these exponential growth curves are not mere coincidences. I believe it’s yet another way that our Creator is giving us a message. A message that we are nearing the end of this present evil age.

There is something that we all need to keep in mind as we consider these trends and how they relate to Bible prophecy. Almost all of these exponential growth rates are a direct result of the exponential growth of the world’s population. If you study the illuminati and their plans for world government – you’ll find that population control is one of their priorities. They are very aware of the trends we have discussed here and are planning to solve the problem. This is why the Lord gives us information regarding this world government – its actions are evil.

“Then I saw another beast, coming out of the earth. He had two horns like a lamb, but he spoke like a dragon.” (Revelation 13:11)

Here are a couple of excellent articles/videos relating to exponential growth and current trends:

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